with Juan Van Deventer
January gave markets a solid start to 2026, even though there were a few bumps along the way. The ASX 200 rose about 1.8%, its best month since August 2025, mostly thanks to strong moves in commodities like energy, materials, uranium and gold-related stocks. Global tensions and higher metal prices also played a role. The index got close to 8,971 before easing back and finishing around 8,869. In the U.S., the S&P 500 gained around 1.4%. Strong company earnings expectations, interest in AI, and broader buying outside the big tech names helped keep things steady.
What Moved the Markets – Australia
December inflation came in higher than expected at 3.8%, climbing from 3.4% the month before, still outside the RBA’s preferred 2–3% range. • Markets reacted by pricing in a chance of a February rate hike. • Bond markets moved too: 10‑year yields rose to around 4.80, showing expectations that interest rates may stay high for longer.
What Moved the Markets – U.S. & Global
On January 30, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Known for being firm on inflation, his nomination caused short‑term reactions, including a stronger U.S. dollar and some pressure on commodities. • U.S. earnings outlooks for 2026 remain strong, with many companies expecting double‑digit growth. • Small‑cap and value stocks did well as investors shifted away from only buying the biggest tech names.
Precious Metals – Big Rally then a Sharp Drop
Gold surged above $5,500/oz during January thanks to safe‑haven demand and central bank buying. Silver rose even more dramatically—up more than 60%—driven by industrial demand and momentum. Toward the end of the month, both metals pulled back sharply. Gold fell from its highs, and silver dropped 11–13% in a single day. A stronger U.S. dollar, profit‑taking, and reaction to the
Warsh nomination played a big role. Australian gold miners still finished the month higher overall, despite the late pullback.
Key Market Moves in January
ASX 200: +1.8% — Best month since August 2025; commodities led.
S&P 500 (US): +1.4 — Steady gains supported by earnings outlook.
Aust. 10‑yr bond yield: 4.80% — Reflects higher‑for‑longer expectations.
Gold: Jumped above $5,500/oz before reversing. Silver: Rose more than 60% then dropped sharply late‑month.
What This Means for Investors
•Inflation in Australia is still too high, increasing the chance of a rate hike soon. That can pressure property markets and borrowing‑heavy sectors.
• The potential new Fed Chair could influence global markets, especially the U.S. dollar, which can impact commodities and international returns.
• Expect more day‑to‑day market movement. Inflation news, central bank comments, and global politics are likely to drive quick reactions.
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