with Juan Van Deventer
February proved to be a more unpredictable month than January. Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran pushed oil prices up and made share markets more volatile. In Australia, the ASX 200 moved around a lot but finished the month stronger overall, up roughly 3.5% and hitting several record highs during the February reporting season. Energy, resources and some defensive companies did well, while property and consumer-related sectors struggled with higher interest rate expectations. In the U.S., the S&P 500 had a mixed month. Corporate earnings were generally positive, but rising oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty meant markets became more cautious.
What Moved the Markets – Australia
• Oil prices jumped due to Middle East tensions.
• Gold demand stayed strong, helping local gold miners.
• Inflation stayed high at 3.8% in January, and the RBA raised the cash rate to 3.85% on 3 February.
• Bond yields moved around, rising early on inflation concerns before easing slightly as investors moved to safer assets later in the month.
Reporting season was also a major driver. Many large miners, banks and energy companies delivered strong results, helping push the ASX 200 to fresh record highs.
What Moved the Markets – U.S. & Global
• Higher oil prices raised concerns that inflation may stay elevated for longer, which could delay interest rate cuts globally.
• Volatility increased across global markets as headlines drove short‑term trading.
Despite this, U.S. earnings for the February reporting season remained generally positive, with many companies still expecting solid profit growth through 2026.
Commodities & Defensive Assets
Oil: One of its strongest monthly moves, driven mainly by geopolitical risk rather than demand.
Gold: Continued higher as investors sought safe‑haven exposure. Central bank buying also supported prices.
Silver: Remained volatile — sometimes following gold higher, but also affected by industrial demand.
Key Themes in February
• More market volatility than January. • Inflation uncertainty due to rising oil prices.
• Higher interest rate expectations after the RBA’s February hike.
• Reporting season showed strong results from major miners and banks, but weaker results from consumer‑exposed sectors.
Estimated Market Performance Snapshot – February
| Market | Move | Notes |
| ASX 200 | +3.5% | Hit multiple record highs; reporting season strong |
| S&P 500 (US) | Slight pullback | Volatility rose on oil and geopolitics |
| Oil (Brent) | Strong gains | Risk premium from U.S. – Iran tensions |
| Gold | Continued higher | Safe-haven demand remained strong |
| Australian 10-yr yield | Volatile | Ended near January levels after swings |
What This Means for Investors
February highlighted how quickly markets can react to global events. Higher oil prices could keep inflation elevated, which may affect the timing of future interest rate cuts.
WARNINGS, DISCLOSURES & DISCLAIMERS
While every care has been taken in the preparation of this article, Soundbridge Pty Ltd (ABN 40 151 134 146) and AFTA Pty Ltd (ABN 18 624 984 550, AFSL 507423) makes no representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of any statement in it including, without limitation, any forecasts.
The information and any advice provided in this document is general and has been prepared without taking into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and might not be appropriate to your situation. Because of that, you should, before acting on the advice, consider the appropriateness of the advice, having regard to those things. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. AFTA Pty Ltd does not warrant that future forecasts are guaranteed to occur.
The information in this document reflects our understanding of existing legislation, proposed legislation, rulings etc as at the date of issue. In some cases, the information has been provided to us by third parties. While it is believed the information is accurate and reliable, this is not guaranteed in any way. Opinions constitute our judgement at the time of issue and are subject to change. Neither the Licensee nor their employees or directors give any warranty of accuracy, nor accept any responsibility for errors or omissions in this document.
Soundbridge Pty Ltd (ABN 40 151 134 146) is a representative of AFTA Pty Ltd (ABN 18 624 984 550), Australian Financial Services License (507423), Registered office at 166 Quay Street, Rockhampton QLD 4700. Any advice on this website is of a general nature only and has not been tailored to your personal circumstances. Please seek personal advice prior to acting on this information.